Recent data from Luminate's 2024 year-end report suggests a potential decline in U.S. vinyl sales, contradicting the format's well-documented resurgence in recent years.

Key Findings:

• RIAA reported a 17% year-over-year vinyl sales increase for H1 2024
• Luminate showed a 1% decline in full-year 2024 physical album sales (excluding independent retail)
• Physical album sales dropped from 56.2 million units in 2023 to 55.6 million in 2024

Methodology Changes: Luminate implemented new calculation methods for independent retailers' physical sales in 2024, resulting in:

• Independent retail sales of 17.3 million vinyl units
• 5.4 million CDs
• 165,000 cassettes

Total Impact:

• Combined sales (including indie retail): 78.5 million physical units in 2024
• This falls below 2023's 87 million units (8.9% YoY increase)
• Also lower than RIAA's H1 2024 estimate of 42.5 million units shipped

Key Considerations:

1. Historical data may have been inflated under the previous methodology
2. Actual vinyl sales could be declining
3. Some indie retailers' sales might not be properly captured
4. Local record stores sell significant quantities of mainstream artists

The discrepancy between different reporting methods and recent methodology changes makes it difficult to determine the true state of vinyl sales. The RIAA's upcoming 2024 annual report will provide additional insight into the market's direction.

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